El Niño, Explained: Why Spring Feels So Fickle

Andrew Curtis chats with Phil Duncan of WeatherWatch.co.nz about the school holiday weather outlook and the much-hyped El Niño system. Duncan forecasts a mostly warm, dry spell this week with showers and possible thunderstorms building over the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon and Sunday in the North Island, before a cooler change reaches Australia and New Zealand next week.

Duncan unpacks what El Niño actually is - a measurable, forecastable warming of equatorial seas north of Tahiti, due to peak in November - and explains it mainly encourages more westerly, spring/autumn-like weather rather than classic summer heat, bringing cloud to western centres and heat inland or in the east. He also flags an unusual twist: Tasman Sea marine heatwaves and rising global temperatures could offset El Niño's usual drying effect, meaning climate change might, ironically, soften the drought risk New Zealand would otherwise face this summer. ([www.weatherwatch.co.nz](https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz))

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