El Niño Spring: More Sun, Less Rain Ahead

Phil Duncan of Weather Watch.co.nz joins Andrew Urquhart to explain the difference between weather and climate, and what a strengthening El Niño means for New Zealand's spring. He likens daily weather to "the food you eat" and climate to your "overall diet", stressing that one cold weekend doesn't disprove broader warming trends given New Zealand's small footprint on the globe.

Duncan reports high pressure is finally settling over the country after months of storms skirting the edges, bringing a drier, warmer pattern through the school holidays despite one more cold front this weekend. He warns of an increasingly serious dry spell heading into the back half of spring, driven by an intensifying El Niño (sea temperatures near Peru over seven degrees above average), and flags unseasonable warmth at Mount Cook as an early sign of the hot northwester bursts - potentially pushing temperatures towards 40°C - that could mark this summer ([www.weatherwatch.co.nz](https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz)).

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