Election 2026: Who Needs Who Most?

Executive director of the Maxim Institute Tim Wilson joins host Andrew Urquhart to unpack the shifting dynamics of the upcoming election campaign, weighing up possible coalition pairings despite parties' public denials. He explores the oft-floated conspiracy that Labour and New Zealand First could govern together, but argues it's unlikely given both leaders' vehement public rejections and the internal caucus resistance Chris Hipkins would face.

Wilson rates a National-Opportunities Party tie-up as more plausible than a Labour-NZ First deal, noting Opportunities hasn't made its land tax or universal basic income bottom lines for negotiation despite Luxon ruling them out. He also flags the Greens' surging poll numbers as a potential game-changer that could reduce Labour's reliance on Winston Peters, and highlights the dramatic decline in major-party vote share - from 75% in 2020 to around 56% in recent polling - as reshaping the post-election bargaining table.

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