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Coalition Maths: Minor Parties Now Hold the Cards

Former National MP Simon O'Connor, now with Family First, unpacks the growing strategic voting debate and the so-called overhang plan, after former Prime Minister John Key warned voters against splitting their party and electorate votes.

Simon explains how MMP allocates seats and why National, polling around 29 percent while holding 43 electorate seats, could create an overhang that pushes senior list MPs, including the Finance Minister, out of Parliament. He argues the strategy is not gaming the system but MMP working as designed, while highlighting the trade-off: with the polls neck and neck, it could secure a centre-right government, but one where ACT and New Zealand First hold far more sway, as National and Labour are no longer the major parties they once were.

Chapters
0:50 How MMP allocates seats
1:45 National's potential overhang
3:14 Left and right neck and neck
4:51 How coalition talks share power
7:05 Can National campaign against it?
8:16 Fewer ministers on either side

#NZPolitics #MMP #NZElection2026 #StrategicVoting

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